How House Works

Heat pump vs gas furnace cost calculator

Pick your state and how you heat now. The calculator prices one year of space heating both ways and shows the seasonal COP at which a heat pump starts to cost less than your current fuel.

By How House Works EditorialBased on EIA prices by state, federal efficiency standardsChecked against sources

How to read the result

The break-even COP is the number to look at first. COP is heat delivered divided by electricity used. A heat pump whose average COP over the winter is above the break-even value costs less to run than your current system at these prices; below it, more. It depends only on the two prices and your furnace's efficiency, not on the size of the house.

The yearly dollar figures scale with the fuel you enter. They are only as good as that number, so the heating part of your own bills beats the starting value. If gas also runs your water heater, stove or dryer, count only the heating part.

HSPF2 and cold weather

HSPF2 is the heat a heat pump delivers over a heating season, in Btu, divided by the electricity it uses, in watt-hours. Dividing by 3.412 turns it into a seasonal COP. The rating includes the backup electric resistance heat the unit uses below its balance point (10 CFR 430, Appendix M1, version in force before July 7, 2025).

The federal HSPF2 minimums are based on one climate, Region IV (10 CFR 430.32(c)); ratings for other regions are optional (Appendix M1, section 5.2). In Table 20 of Appendix M1 as it read until July 6, 2025, Region IV has 1,701 heating load hours and a 5 °F design temperature, and Region V has 2,202 hours and −10 °F. The current appendix takes the region data from AHRI standard 210/240-2024, which we have not checked. A house in a colder place has more heating hours at lower temperatures than Region IV. The sources behind this page give no way to correct HSPF2 for that, so treat HSPF2 ÷ 3.412 as a rating, not a forecast for your house.

DOE describes the balance point as the outdoor temperature at which the heat pump's capacity equals the house's heating load; below it the heat pump uses auxiliary heat. DOE adds that energy codes require controls to prevent unnecessary heat strip operation, and that this is one of the most commonly violated installation practices for heat pumps. For cold regions, ENERGY STAR's cold climate criteria ask for a COP of at least 1.75 at 5 °F and at least 70% of the 47 °F heating capacity at 5 °F (ENERGY STAR Heat Pump specification, version 6.2). The 1.75 is a single test point, not a seasonal COP.

What the calculator leaves out

  • Purchase and installation cost, rebates and tax credits.
  • Cooling. A heat pump also air-conditions; the calculator compares heating only.
  • Rate structure. EIA's prices are averages, not the rate for one more kWh or therm. For electricity it is revenue divided by sales, and revenue includes customer service charges; EIA notes that this average does not equal the rate a utility charges an individual customer. For gas it is a total price that includes "all tax, delivery, commodity, demand and other charges". The per-kWh and per-therm rates on your own bill are the better inputs. Time-of-use and tiered rates are not modeled.
  • Taxes on propane and heating oil. EIA's residential propane and heating oil prices exclude taxes; the gas price includes them. Enter your delivered price from the bill if you have it.
  • Price swings. EIA collects propane and heating oil prices weekly from October through March and once a month, on the second Monday, from April through September. The U.S. residential heating oil average was $6.04 a gallon in the week of October 5, 2026, against $3.56 in the week of October 6, 2025.
  • Duct losses, thermostat setbacks, and how much of the house the heat pump covers.

Methodology

  1. Heat delivered (million Btu a year) = fuel used × heat content per unit × AFUE.
  2. Cost now = fuel used × fuel price. For electric resistance heat, efficiency is 100%: DOE puts it at about 3,400 Btu of heat per kWh, and a kWh is 3,412 Btu.
  3. Heat pump electricity (kWh) = heat × 293.1 ÷ COP, where 293.1 kWh = 1 million Btu (1 kWh = 3,412 Btu). Cost = kWh × electricity price.
  4. Break-even COP = (electricity price per kWh × 293.1) ÷ (fuel price per million Btu ÷ AFUE).
  5. Seasonal COP from HSPF2 = HSPF2 ÷ 3.412.
  6. Natural gas: EIA prices gas per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Price per therm = price per Mcf × 100 ÷ heat content in Btu per cubic foot, with each state's 2025 heat content of gas delivered to consumers (all sectors; EIA publishes no residential-only figure).
  7. Heat content per unit (EIA): therm 100,000 Btu; propane 91,452 Btu per gallon; heating oil 138,500 Btu per gallon; kWh 3,412 Btu. EIA publishes other heating oil factors too (137,381 Btu per gallon in its conversion calculators); the difference is under 1%.

Default values and where they come from

  • Electricity: EIA average residential price by state, 2025, final (Form EIA-861 data, released October 7, 2026).
  • Natural gas: EIA average residential price by state, 2025, preliminary (EIA's next release of the annual figures is due October 30, 2026). EIA shows no 2025 value for Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina; for these the calculator uses the 2024 final price.
  • Propane and heating oil: EIA residential prices for the week of October 5, 2026. EIA collects propane prices in 38 states and heating oil prices in 21 states and DC; elsewhere the field starts empty.
  • Fuel used for heating: EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, average natural gas used for space heating (main and secondary) per household that uses gas for it, by state. EIA notes that differences between states may not be statistically significant. EIA withholds the figure for Hawaii; the U.S. average is used there. For propane, oil and electric heat the starting value is the same amount of heat, assuming that average gas home has an 80% AFUE furnace.
  • AFUE: 80% for natural gas and 83% for oil, the federal minimums for new non-weatherized gas and oil-fired furnaces (10 CFR 430.32(e)); propane starts at 80% too. Boilers have their own minimums: 84% for gas-fired hot water boilers made on or after January 15, 2021. A 95% minimum for non-weatherized gas furnaces made on and after December 18, 2028 is in the same section; gas and propane industry associations petitioned DOE to move that date to at least January 1, 2030, and DOE published the petition for comment on April 27, 2026 (91 FR 22477).
  • HSPF2: 7.8, the ENERGY STAR minimum for split heat pumps. The federal minimum for split heat pumps made on or after January 1, 2023 is 7.5; the ENERGY STAR cold climate minimums are 8.5 (non-ducted) and 8.1 (ducted).

Break-even COP by state

The seasonal COP a heat pump needs to cost less than a gas furnace, at each state's average prices. The higher your furnace's AFUE, the higher the bar.

StateElectricity, ¢/kWhGas, $/thermBreak-even COP, AFUE 80%AFUE 95%
U.S. average17.231.482.733.24
Alabama16.091.702.222.63
Alaska26.111.314.675.54
Arizona15.261.811.972.34
Arkansas12.871.881.601.90
California31.352.153.414.05
Colorado15.691.053.514.17
Connecticut29.311.63*4.215.00
Delaware17.151.542.603.09
District of Columbia21.921.613.183.78
Florida15.212.491.431.70
Georgia14.741.981.752.07
Hawaii40.405.711.661.97
Idaho11.830.743.754.45
Illinois17.671.073.864.58
Indiana15.961.093.454.09
Iowa13.621.003.193.79
Kansas14.441.432.382.82
Kentucky13.131.362.272.69
Louisiana12.521.701.722.04
Maine27.691.81*3.594.26
Maryland19.531.55*2.953.50
Massachusetts30.412.432.933.48
Michigan20.031.034.565.41
Minnesota15.831.043.574.23
Mississippi14.031.632.022.40
Missouri13.301.462.142.54
Montana12.990.853.604.27
Nebraska12.051.082.623.11
Nevada13.261.262.472.93
New Hampshire24.531.793.213.81
New Jersey22.481.373.854.57
New Mexico14.850.963.614.29
New York26.391.703.634.31
North Carolina14.001.57*2.092.48
North Dakota11.820.913.053.63
Ohio16.901.303.043.61
Oklahoma13.211.392.242.65
Oregon15.461.552.332.77
Pennsylvania19.291.453.123.70
Rhode Island29.482.10*3.293.90
South Carolina15.121.63*2.172.58
South Dakota13.320.923.404.04
Tennessee13.221.162.683.19
Texas15.401.911.892.24
Utah13.020.973.143.73
Vermont22.791.723.113.69
Virginia15.281.602.232.65
Washington13.171.611.922.28
West Virginia15.391.272.843.38
Wisconsin18.081.024.144.92
Wyoming13.371.112.813.34

* 2024 gas price; EIA shows no 2025 value. Electricity: 2025, final. Gas: 2025, preliminary. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA's 2025 residential gas price covers less than 90% of residential deliveries in District of Columbia (73.5%), Nebraska (88.4%), Pennsylvania (88.5%), Wyoming (67.4%).

See also

Error codes: Carrier, Daikin, Fujitsu, Goodman, Lennox, Mitsubishi Electric, MrCool, Rheem and Ruud

Sources

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (Form EIA-861, Annual Electric Power Industry Report). Annual sales to ultimate customers by state and sector, EIA-861 historical state spreadsheet "HS861 2010-.xlsx", sheet "Total Electric Industry" (columns RESIDENTIAL: Revenues, Sales, Customers, Price). Residential average price, 2025 (final). Released October 7, 2026. Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly, February 2026 (data for December 2025), Table 5.6.B Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State, Year-to-Date through December 2025 and 2024 (Cents per Kilowatthour); and Technical Notes pp.261, 267. Technical notes: definition of the average price. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (dnav ng_pri_sum). Natural Gas Prices, Average Residential Price, annual, by state (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet). Residential price, 2025 (preliminary) and 2024. Released September 30, 2026. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes: Natural Gas Prices. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (dnav ng_pri_sum). Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices (annual, by state). Share of residential deliveries included in the prices, 2025. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (dnav ng_cons_heat). Heat Content of Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers (Btu per Cubic Foot), annual, by state. Heat content of gas delivered to consumers, 2025. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating Oil and Propane Update (residential propane and residential heating oil, dollars per gallon, by state). Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices: residential No. 2 heating oil (dollars per gallon, excluding taxes). U.S. and state residential No. 2 heating oil, week of October 5, 2026; the week of October 6, 2025 is in the page's View History table. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices: residential propane (dollars per gallon, excluding taxes). State residential propane, week of October 5, 2026. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  10. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Methodology for EIA Weekly Retail Price Estimates of Winter Fuels. Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration. British thermal units (Btu) - Energy Explained (table "Sample Btu conversion factors"). Sample Btu conversion factors. Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Energy conversion calculators - Energy Explained. Diesel fuel and heating oil: 137,381 Btu per gallon for distillate with 15 ppm or less sulfur (2026 estimate). Accessed Oct 12, 2026.
  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) 2020. CE4.6.NG.ST Annual household site natural gas end-use consumption in the United States by state - averages, 2020 (sheets: Btu, physical units, rse). Table CE4.6.NG.ST, space heating, 2020. Released June 2023. Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  14. eCFR (Office of the Federal Register / GPO), Title 10 Part 430 Subpart C. 10 CFR 430.32 Energy and water conservation standards and their compliance dates, paragraphs (c) central air conditioners and heat pumps and (e) furnaces and boilers. Paragraphs (c) and (e). Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  15. eCFR, Title 10 Part 430 Subpart B (version as of 2025-06-01). Appendix M1 to Subpart B of Part 430 (full text in force before 2025-07-07), definition 1.2 "Heating seasonal performance factor 2 (HSPF2)", section 4.2 and Table 20. Definition of HSPF2 and Table 20 (version in force before July 7, 2025). Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  16. eCFR, Title 10 Part 430 Subpart B. Appendix M1 to Subpart B of Part 430 - Uniform Test Method for Measuring the Energy Consumption of Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps (current version, effective 2025-07-07). Sections 5.1 and 5.2 (current version, effective July 7, 2025). Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  17. U.S. EPA ENERGY STAR. ENERGY STAR Program Requirements, Product Specification for Heat Pump Equipment, Eligibility Criteria Version 6.2 (Rev. February 2026). Tables 1 and 2. Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  18. Department of Energy (Federal Register). Energy Conservation Program: Notification of Petition for Rulemaking (AGA, APGA, NPGA petition to move compliance dates to January 1, 2030 at a minimum), 91 FR 22477. April 27, 2026. Accessed Oct 13, 2026.
  19. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Saver. Air-Source Heat Pumps (DOE Energy Saver). Archived copy; the page returned 404 on energy.gov on October 13, 2026. Accessed Oct 13, 2026.